September 10 Harris-Trump Debate Could Define Election’s Outcome

When President Biden withdrew from the race, Donald Trump inherited the role of a weak incumbent, vulnerable to an attractive, credible challenger.

Their September 10 debate provides Kamala Harris the best opportunity she will have between now and November to solidify and expand her support as that credible challenger.

Simply put, for most movable voters, it will be where she can make that all-important first impression.

The Importance of First Impressions

About 28 million people watched Harris speak at the recent Democratic convention. Fair to say, most of them were Democratic partisans. In 2020, more than 50 million watched the first Biden-Trump debate. At least that many will be tuned in September 10. Many will be undecided voters, uncertain whether Harris has the stuff to be president. That’s a higher bar for a woman because U.S. voters have never experienced one.

To use a metaphor that aptly fits here, Harris would be breaking a glass ceiling. Hillary Clinton had that opportunity in 2016 but blew it. Yes, Clinton ran an unforgivably terrible campaign, but working against her was an image created during her decades under an intense spotlight. Voters had a well-formed mixed opinion of Clinton before she ran for president. Whether she “won” or “lost” debates against Trump would change the outcome only at the margins.

Harris is still an unknown quantity to many voters, a candidate in name only without a deep public image. Both the challenge and the opportunity are entirely different from Clinton’s. What makes the debate format different from campaign rallies and other public appearances is contrast. Harris and Trump will be the two names on the presidential ballot. Which of them best handles their confrontation? Who “wins” or “loses.” That marker will be important for the remaining days of the campaign.

How Will Voters Perceive Harris?

Movable voters will be judging how Harris handles pressure from an extreme antagonist. They will be judging whether she fits their vision of a U.S. president who looks the part behind the Oval Room’s Resolute desk or going one-on-one with Putin and other world leaders. How strong is she?

There are foreign role models: Israel’s Golda Meir, Germany’s Angela Merkel, and Great Britain’s Margaret Thatcher. Does Harris measure up? Or is she just a nice lady with a nice family who accidentally wound up in this place? Trump’s trying to win with a macho strategy. Harris can’t allow him to make a convincing contrast of personal strength with her.

Preparing for the Debate

Given the stakes, if I were heading the team prepping Harris for this debate, how would I go about it?

First, and as important as any other detail, will be her appearance. Viewers’ first look at Harris in this format must be “presidential.” Dark jacket. Full collar. Neckware suitable for a woman who is all business. Earrings and lip color that don’t call attention to themselves. This isn’t an occasion for a fashion statement.

I’d bring a box for Harris to comfortably stand on so she and Trump appear to be the same height. He can’t be allowed to tower over her in video of the stage or photos that will come after. To many eyes, a difference in height means a difference in strength.

No matter the topic or provocation, she must maintain facial control, no hint of being rattled. Yes, she can and should use her wide, joyful smile, but only when motivated by something said that makes others smile, too. Otherwise, her demeanor must reflect the importance of the occasion.

Beyond Appearance

As for content, don’t underestimate Trump. He will be well-coached and rightly warned against melting down. The key for Harris to win by a knockout is to crumble that defense. Be prepared to use attack lines that have enraged him in the past. Even better, some attack lines he won’t be expecting. Dig deep into the research. Some possibilities:

• The presidency requires a team of the best and the brightest. Nearly everyone on his presidential team is either in jail, under indictment, or are those he pardoned. Many others he chose for key jobs vigorously oppose him now. It’s the worst indictment of his judgment and ability.

• He inherited a thriving economy from Obama and left it in shambles. He’s the only president who left office with fewer jobs created than when he took office.

• Cite all of his boasts about knowing more about their jobs than the nation’s most accomplished generals, economists, scientists. Research likely will turn up similar boasts about quarterbacks and coaches. How can you run a successful presidency without listening to experts? Inject a bit of artificial intelligence into the line for humor.

• Belittle him over the Kennedy and Gabbard deal. Suggest who they might recommend for key jobs.
  

Look Forward, Not Backward

Double down on looking forward, not backward.

The moderators will ask questions that have headlined the campaign so far. Harris will be prepared for those. But she won’t win on debating points. Harris needs to BE president to move big blocs of undecided votes her way. She needs to shrink Trump in voters’ eyes to freeze the support he already has.

Neither Harris nor anyone else outside of the MAGA orbit will peel votes from Trump. He must shake those votes loose himself through a bizarre performance. If she preps well for the debate, she just might be able to goad Trump into talking himself into defeat.

Comments? Criticism? Contact Joe Rothstein at jrothstein@rothstein.net