2024 Trump Victory Factors: How Money and Media Shaped the Election

For more than 30 years I developed strategies, produced media and managed political campaigns. I specialized in long odds races against entrenched incumbents and won a fair share of them. I’m no stranger to political upsets.

But never in my personal political experience did I work with, or against, a candidate who won with the load of personal baggage Donald Trump carried. Any one of the dozens of moral, ethical, legal or criminal acts in his background would have sunk the election prospects of just about anyone else. Why not him?

I’ve been mulling that puzzle since November 5. Analysts have pointed to race, gender, Harris’s late start, Biden’s unpopularity, too much time and effort trying to flip Republican votes, male anger and other factors. I can’t argue with any of that. But it’s not enough.  

That’s just normal campaign stuff. I’ve pushed enough buttons and pulled enough levers making campaign decisions to know that in a normal campaign, Trump would not have won. In fact, according to the polls, if the vote had taken place in August or September Harris likely would have been elected. 

The Shift in How Voters Consume News

So, what made this campaign abnormal? My take is that two new factors in presidential campaigns made the difference.

1. The way voters received and process news and information. 

2. Unlimited big money
   

I watched Kamala Harris’s CNN town hall appearance and felt she did well. That program had an audience of 3 million. I didn’t watch Donald Trump’s appearance on the Joe Rogan podcast. That event drew 43 million.

What we’ve considered mainstream media—broadcast TV and cable news, major print publications—no longer are mainstream media. No longer does a significant portion of the voting public form its opinion based on a common fount mediated by professional editors. Hundreds of “influencers” on podcasts, YouTube, social media and other newly created sources now shape peoples’ views of news and personalities. 

This shift in information consumption has been underway for years. In 2024 it reached critical mass. 

The Harris campaign was aware of the new information silos. In fact, she took much heat from legacy media for devoting more time to niche media at the expense of the usual news outlets. But her campaign was outgunned. The right wing echo chamber has grown wildly from its mothership Fox News and the proliferation of early talk radio. With those channels as principal information sources, and all their new media clones, millions of voters simply didn’t see Trump as villainous as those of us who read the New York Times and watch CNN. On many normally non-political sites like Rogan’s, she was defined negatively for those who had little knowledge of her before she became the candidate.

The Influence of Unlimited Big Money

It’s hugely expensive to keep the right wing information ecosystem functioning. Sponsorships. Advertising. Conventions. Seminars. That’s why it’s important to have rich friends.

The billionaire class has grown exponentially in recent years. So has the number of those whose wealth is measured in hundreds of millions of dollars. It’s safe to assume that most fabulously rich people would rather not pay more taxes or be restrained in their financial activities by government regulations or pesky tax audits. So where would they see their best political interests?

Hence, the big investment in right wing media. Now that investment has been supersized with a new media army. And, just as significant and alarming, direct Musk-like intervention in political campaigns.

In 2024, after a series of Supreme Court decisions and actions by a compliant Federal Election Commission, there no longer are effective restraints on the amount of money the ultra-rich and corporations can pour into electing preferred candidates. Neither do they need to worry about disclosure. 

Dark Money’s Role in Shaping Election Outcomes

Harris out raising and out spending Trump was big news during the campaign. The final reported numbers may well show that she did. But don’t believe it. With dark money darker than ever, the official reports no longer disclose the whole story.

Elon Musk likely spent more than $200 million just in October, much of it in Pennsylvania. How much more he spent to influence the outcome will never be known, just as we will never know many of the other wealthy donors and their contributions. What we do know is that a tidal wave of Republican money helped Trump erode Harris’s early lead in the polls during the critical months of September and October.

The fracturing of information outlets. The consolidation of unlimited campaign money. These are new overriding developments in our elections, our democracy. 

The proliferation of news and information channels is here to stay. Candidates, campaigns, policy makers and advocates all must adjust to it. It’s a new normal.

But the dominance of big money doesn’t need to be a new normal. Unlimited dark political spending is with us because of political and judicial decisions. It can be reversed by other political and judicial decisions.

I have my thoughts on how to do that. What are yours? Let’s discuss this in future columns.

Comments? Criticism? Contact Joe Rothstein at jrothstein@rothstein.net

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