The Election Outcome Could Hinge on an October Surprise

Polling snapshots today (9/19) of the presidential race provide a mixed picture of what results we will see November 6.

Numbers guru Nate Silver has simulated thousands of outcomes and says Trump has a 60%+ chance of winning. On the other hand, the blue blood of polling averages, 538.com has run similar numbers and found the opposite, Harris with a 60%+ probability of winning. 

What is clear from these conflicting estimates is that with just weeks to go the result of the presidential campaign has yet to be decided. What will make the difference? Superior campaigning and get out the vote efforts, if there are no unexpected developments. But expect the unexpected.

October Surprises and Their Potential Impact

Every presidential election year unfolds with the prospect of an “October surprise.” Think back to 2016’s Access Hollywood tapes and the FBI’s reopening of Hillary Clinton’s email case. What kind of surprises could be ahead during the next few weeks? Here are a few possibilities.

• The second Trump assassination attempt is a stark reminder of how treacherous toxic campaign rhetoric can be in a country with more guns than people. And not just for the presidential candidates. Thousands of other candidates, their supporters and poll workers are on the streets daily without Secret Service protection. There were an average of 10 mass shootings each week in the U.S. through June. Odds are there will be more in the next few weeks---schools, work environments, public places. This powder keg could explode with force anywhere at any time.

• Developments in Ukraine or Israel already have moved meaningful blocs of U.S. voters to change their votes or not vote at all. Every day between now and November has the prospect for cease fires deals or the widening those wounds. Like exploding pagers.

• Countries with huge stakes in the outcome—Russia, China, Iran, already have been caught flooding U.S. messaging channels with insidious misinformation. There’s no reason to believe they won’t continue at accelerating levels.

• The billionaires among us could easily dump some of those billions into the campaign with impunity during the last few weeks.Will they? 

• The Wikileaks hack probably cost Hillary Clinton the 2016 election. Would anyone be surprised if we soon see a 2024 version?

• Just because Trump says now he won’t agree to a second debate doesn’t mean there won’t be one. And don't discount the importance of the upcoming Walz-Vance debate. The two presidential debates so far have been hugely meaningful. Why wouldn’t a third? Or a fourth?

• Covid is everywhere now. The candidates are in crowds. Will health become a factor?  

• Don’t think for a moment the Trump campaign is not scouring Harris’s record as DA and California attorney general and personal life for embarrassing (or portrayed that way) revelations from Harris’s professional or personal past. What emerges should not even be considered a surprise given that Trump’s campaign is being managed by the same person who managed the swift-boating of John Kerry. 

Expect the Unexpected

This list is not definitive, of course. It’s not literally even a list of surprises. A surprise is something unexpected. Like the biggest surprise of all—Kamala Harris as the presidential candidate, not Joe Biden. Who saw that coming before July?

Don’t be surprised if before November 6 we see more surprises. Big ones. Result-affecting ones.

Comments? Criticism? Contact Joe Rothstein at jrothstein@rothstein.net