Why Harris is Likely to Do Better Than Her Poll Numbers Suggest

Kamala Harris has an important advantage in this election campaign that draws scant attention.

For lack of a better term, let’s call it the “ground game.” But this is ground game circa 2024, far more complex and technology-driven than anything possible in prior elections.

Here’s why it could be a decisive advantage.

The Data-Driven Ground Game: A Powerful Advantage

Every time you subscribe to a magazine, buy toys at Wal-Mart, make a purchase that shows up at a credit rating agency, or do virtually anything commonplace in your everyday life, your name is added to a digital list somewhere. Those lists go into databases available for purchase by commercial marketers and political campaigns, which then cross-index them to create a personal profile of you.

The lists are so rich with your personal information that, given enough time, money, and other resources, it is literally possible to design a campaign just for you as an individual voter, appealing to your personal living situation and your personal interests and preferences.

With that information, a campaign can deploy email, social media, postal mail, and personal volunteer contacts with messages custom-tailored for you, often supercharged by delivering them through individuals you know and respect.

Targeted Messaging for Maximum Impact

That’s not all. Because most people now watch TV on streaming services and cable, the campaign knows what programs you are likely to watch. TV spots can be designed for and delivered to undecided voters with unprecedented precision.

Custom-tailored voter contact means a campaign can sort out groups and individuals the data identifies as likely to be persuadable. That allows the campaign to deploy its money and volunteer power where it will have its greatest chance for impact.

All of this is available to every campaign. So why does it present an important advantage for Harris?

Harris's Superior Ground Game vs. Trump's Outsourcing

Harris has a significant advantage because her campaign and the Democratic Party are coordinating what is likely the most efficient voter-targeted ground game ever, while Trump and the Republican Party have farmed out that part of the campaign to a bevy of supporting PACs, a system that cannot be nearly as efficient or effective.

According to the Wall Street Journal, through August the Harris campaign has spent $48.5 million on its ground game. The Trump campaign has spent zero. That gap will widen considerably during these final weeks when voter contact becomes more intense and sets the table for the critically important get-out-the-vote effort.

In an election where polls show numbers as close as this one, every edge matters. Harris’s superior voter contact and get-out-the-vote effort could make the difference between winning or losing the decisive swing states.

Comments? Criticism? Contact Joe Rothstein at jrothstein@rothstein.net

Do you know someone who might like to receive Joe Rothstein’s It’s Always Something emails? Forward this one. It’s free.